Signs of Life
Since mid 2022, when the Reserve Bank of Australia began to lift the official cash rate, the New England and North Western NSW property market began to plateau. Demand from both local and investor buyer declined. Current prices have held solid, however there has been little to no growth in values.
Recent interest rate cuts and renewed market confidence appear to be stimulating the market again. Agents are reporting enquiry and demand levels reminiscent of pre 2022 activity. Recent rural transactions would also suggest that value increases across the board are a real possibility, despite recent inflation data suggesting future interest rate cuts may be off the table.
Residential Market Snapshot
Entry-Level Strength
Some market segments have continued to perform well, with solid turnover and consistent demand, however this is limited to entry level residential properties under $500,000. These are dominated by first-home buyers and out-of-town investors, with many homes selling off-market due to low supply.
Most towns across Northern NSW have seen good rental income growth in the past 12 months due to rental shortages and increasing migration and populations. Rental properties are considered to be affordable to those along the eastern seaboard and increased migration has taken place.
Mid-Market Movement
The mid-market with homes priced between $500,000 and $900,000 remains slow with low turnover. However, recent interest rate cuts have sparked increased enquiry and slow increases in turnover. No recent value growth is evident within this market segment.
High-End Hesitation
The $1 million+ market, including rural residential properties, remains slow with very few transactions in the past six months.
Rural Market Trends
New England Grazing
Despite good turnover, prices have remained steady. January to June sales confirmed prices that were experienced prior to 2022, this was confirmed by sales of two quality basalt grazing blocks near Guyra achieving around $19,750 per hectare ($8,000 per acre in old terms). Notably “Pineview” Guyra, a 142ha basalt grazing property with modest infrastructure recently sold for $3.16 million or $19,750 per hectare ($9006 per acre in old terms).
North West Cultivation
Unlike New England grazing land, cultivation properties have seen steady value increases over a prolonged period. The recent price increases have been driven by local landholders expanding operations, while well-established corporate entities no longer see good value in cropping land to the east of the Newell Highway and in some cases are slowly divesting. Two recent sales in the Cropper Creek area, both modest in size with working improvements, strong locations, quality soil types, and broadacre development, are currently under contract at $17,313 and $17,408 per hectare (improved). These transactions represent market-leading benchmarks for the region.
Market Outlook
Different segments are moving at different speeds:
- Investor and entry-level residential: Expected to continue rising due to low supply, strong rental yields, and affordability.
- Owner-occupier market: May see improved sales volumes on the back of improved affordability, but significant value growth remains unlikely.
- Rural properties: Value increases will depend on quality and location, with blue-chip areas showing promise based on recent sales data.