Cotality Austalia’s Monthly housing pack for January 2026 has shown an annual growth across all capital cities of 8.6% with a range of 4.8% increase in Melbourne and 18.9% in Darwin. Other notable performers include Perth at 15.9% and Brisbane at 14.5%.
So where are the markets headed in 2026. I have reached out to our Residential State Directors at Acumentis to gather their projections for 2026 across each of their respective regions.
Looking ahead to 2026, there are several notable challenges, including:
- Rising inflation, which may result in higher interest rates, as the RBA remains focused on managing inflationary pressures within the economy.
- Housing affordability concerns in several markets—particularly Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide—which have experienced significant value growth over the past five years.
Based on current data and market performance, most residential markets are expected to experience modest growth in 2026. While overall growth may be limited, the persistent undersupply of housing across nearly all markets should continue to support positive momentum, assuming no major external events disrupt the Australian residential market.
Sydney (2025 – 5.8%): Predicted 2026 growth of 5–6%, likely mirroring last year’s performance.
Melbourne (2025 – 4.8%): Predicted 6–8% growth. Relative affordability compared to other capitals is expected to attract renewed demand, though investor activity remains constrained by state taxes.
Brisbane (2025 – 14.5%): Predicted 5–7% growth. Strong interstate migration and major infrastructure projects, including the 2032 Olympics, will continue to support the market despite rising affordability pressures.
Adelaide (2025 – 8.8%): Predicted 1–3% growth. The market has performed well post-COVID, but affordability constraints are limiting further expansion.
Perth (2025 – 15.9%): Predicted 4–6% growth. Ongoing housing undersupply will underpin growth, even following strong gains over the past three years.
Canberra (2025 – 4.9%): Predicted 1–3% growth. Market confidence remains subdued due to inflationary and cost-of-living pressures.
Darwin (2025 – 18.9%): Predicted 7–9% growth. Investor activity, low price points, and limited housing supply, along with progress on major projects such as the Beetaloo Sub-basin, will continue to drive strong market performance.
Hobart (2025 – 6.8%): Predicted 7–9% growth. Market confidence is improving, supported by developments such as the Macquarie Point Stadium.
Summary
Overall, the Australian residential market is expected to maintain moderate growth in 2026, supported by ongoing housing undersupply and major infrastructure projects. However, affordability challenges and broader economic pressures will temper the pace of growth across several markets.